Characteristics of the derivation and validation cohorts
| Derivation cohort (n=466) | Validation cohort (n=404) | |
| Patient characteristics | ||
| Age, median (IQR), years | 61 (48–78) | 67 (54–77.3) |
| Sex (male), n (%) | 269 (57.7) | 268 (66.3) |
| Syncope, n (%) | 46 (9.8) | 66 (16.3) |
| Melaena, n (%) | 231 (50.0) | 299 (74) |
| Oral antiplatelet drugs or NSAIDs, n (%) | 112 (24) | 99 (24.5) |
| Oral anticoagulants, n (%) | 71 (15.2) | 69 (17.1) |
| Alternative diagnosis*, n (%) | 74 (15.8) | 155 (38.4) |
| Laboratory measurements | ||
| HR, median (IQR), beats/min | 92 (78–108) | 90 (77.3–103) |
| SBP, median (IQR), mm Hg | 124 (111–141) | 111 (99.8–127) |
| SI (HR/SBP), median (IQR) | 0.74 (0.6 0.89) | 0.78 (0.65 0.97) |
| CRP, median (IQR), mg/L | 7 (2.1–22.6) | 12 (3–41) |
| Hb, median (IQR), g/L | 109 (85.128.8) | 86 (70–107) |
| Urea, median (IQR), mmol/L | 8.7 (5.2–13.4) | 9.6 (5.8–15) |
| Creatinine, median (IQR), μmol/L | 77.5 (66 – 105) | 80.5 (65–119.3) |
| Urea/creatinine, median (IQR) | 98.3 (65.143.3) | 100 (64.9–148) |
| PPI use in last week | Not available | 156 (38.6) |
| Comorbidities | ||
| Cardiac, n (%) | 27 (5.7) | 58 (14.4) |
| Chronic liver disease, n (%) | 95 (20.3) | 97 (24) |
| Renal, n (%) | 31 (6.7) | 66 (16.3) |
| Malignancy, n (%) | 16 (3.4) | 96 (23.8) |
| COPD, n (%) | 27 (5.8) | 25 (6.2) |
| Hypertension, n (%) | 106 (22.7) | 172 (42.6) |
| Stroke, n (%) | 23 (4.9) | 34 (8.4) |
| Diabetes, n (%) | 78 (16.7) | 117 (29) |
| Dementia, n (%) | 19 (4.1) | 22 (5.4) |
| Treatments | ||
| Blood transfusion, n (%) | 161 (34.5) | 228 (56.4) |
| Endotherapy, n (%) | 112 (24.0) | 105 (26) |
| Radiological intervention, n (%) | 8 (1.7) | 3 (0.7) |
| Surgical intervention, n (%) | 10 (2.1) | 3 (0.7) |
| Outcomes | ||
| Rebleeding, n (%) | 7 (1.5) | 58 (14.4) |
| Mortality, n (%) | 30 (6.4) | 28 (6.9) |
*Acute alternative diagnosis for anaemia, haemodynamic instability or urea rise.
COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CRP, C reactive protein; Hb, haemoglobin; HR, heart rate; NSAID, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; PPI, proton pump inhibitor; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SI, Shock Index.