Table 4

Predictors of post-ERCP pancreatitis

VariablePEP (n=18)No PEP (n=1061)OR95% CIP value
Clinical
Age
 <40 years62131.990.74 to 5.370.17
 40–70 years95880.80.32 to 2.050.65
 >70 years32600.620.18 to 2.150.45
Sex
 Male63910.860.32 to 2.300.76
 Female12670Reference groupReference group
Ethnicity
 Afro-Caribbean74640.820.32 to 2.130.69
 African American53770.70.25 to 1.970.5
 White2403.190.71 to 14.350.13
 Other4180Reference groupReference group
ASA grade
 I019Reference groupReference group
 II53200.640.24 to 1.750.39
 III104771.530.60 to 3.910.37
 IV and V01560.160.01 to 2.610.2
Obesity53530.772.73 to 2.180.62
Prior PEP4837.610.1 to 139.5<0.0001
Suspected or known duct stone108460.320.12 to 0.820.02
Rectal indomethacin use1311.960.25 to 15.170.52
Procedural
ASGE complexity grade
 141641.560.51 to 4.810.44
 2125531.840.68 to 4.930.22
 311730.30.04 to 2.280.25
 41401.50.20 to 11.560.7
HOUSE complexity score
 1137651.010.36 to 2.850.99
 231701.050.3 to 3.660.94
 32771.60.36 to 7.080.54
Antibiotics before procedure54560.510.18 to 1.440.2
Biliary stone extraction65240.510.19 to 1.380.18
Biliary stent insertion31001.920.55 to 6.750.31
Pancreatogram3413.110.69 to 140.14
Pancreatic duct stent41082.520.82 to 7.80.11
Biliary sphincterotomy146422.280.75 to 6.990.15
Biliary precut0360.760.05 to 12.850.85
  • ERCP, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; PEP, post-ERCP pancreatitis.