Table 6

Predictors of post-ERCP severe or fatal complications

Variable	Severe or fatal (n=41)	Not severe or fatal (n=1038)	OR	95% CI	P value
Clinical
Age
<40 years	4	215	0.41	0.15 to 1.17	0.1
40–70 years	23	574	1.03	0.55 to 1.94	0.92
>70 years	14	249	1.64	0.85 to 3.18	0.14
Sex
Male	18	379	1.36	0.73 to 2.55	0.34
Female	23	659	Reference group	Reference group
Ethnicity
Afro-Caribbean	27	445	2.57	1.33 to 4.96	0.005
African American	9	373	0.5	0.24 to 1.06	0.07
White	2	41	1.25	0.29 to 5.34	0.77
Other	4	172	0.54	0.19 to 1.55	0.25
ASA grade
I	0	19	Reference group	Reference group
II	8	322	0.5	0.23 to 1.11	0.09
III	17	465	0.81	0.43 to 1.54	0.51
IV and V	14	144	3.13	1.59 to 6.17	0.001
Obesity	17	349	1.4	0.74 to 2.64	0.3
Suspected or known duct stone	37	811	2.59	0.91 to 7.34	0.07
Procedural
ASGE complexity grade
1	6	162	1.03	0.42 to 2.54	0.94
2	22	543	1.37	0.66 to 2.86	0.4
3	4	170	0.6	0.21 to 1.74	0.35
4	1	40	0.68	0.09 to 5.13	0.71
HOUSE complexity score	38	993
1	27	751	0.79	0.39 to 1.62	0.52
2	9	165	1.56	0.72 to 3.35	0.26
3	2	77	0.66	0.16 to 2.79	0.57
Biliary stone extraction	15	527	0.56	0.29 to 1.07	0.08
Antibiotics preprocedure	23	440	1.74	0.93 to 3.26	0.09