Table 3

Predictors of overall post-ERCP complications

VariableComplications (n=106)No complications (n=973)OR95% CIP value
Clinical
Age
 <40 years192010.840.5 to 1.410.51
 40–70 years545430.820.55 to 1.230.34
 >70 years332291.470.95 to 2.270.08
Sex
 Male493481.541.03 to 2.310.04
 Female57625Reference groupReference group
Ethnicity
 Afro-Caribbean494221.120.75 to 1.680.57
 African American313510.730.47 to 1.140.16
 White6371.520.63 to 3.680.36
 Other201631.160.69 to 1.930.58
ASA grade
 I0190.210.01 to 3.540.28
 II303200.710.46 to 1.110.14
 III374250.60.39 to 0.910.02
 IV and V281272.191.37 to 3.510.001
Obesity333160.940.61 to 1.450.78
Prior PEP576.982.18 to 22.40.001
Suspected or known duct stone887821.190.7 to 2.030.51
Procedural
ASGE complexity grade
 1151540.860.48 to 1.540.62
 2625031.360.87 to 2.120.18
 3151590.830.47 to 1.480.53
 42390.450.11 to 1.920.28
HOUSE complexity score
 1707080.760.48 to 1.210.25
 2201541.280.76 to 2.150.35
 39701.230.6 to 2.550.57
Biliary stone extraction414890.620.41 to 0.940.02
Pancreatogram7361.840.8 to 4.250.15
Pancreatic duct stent23892.751.65 to 4.590.0001
Biliary sphincterotomy685881.170.77 to 1.780.46
Biliary precut7292.30.98 to 5.390.05
  • ERCP, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; PEP, post-ERCP pancreatitis.