Variable | Estimate (range) | Distribution | Source |
Residual adenoma prevalence at initial CRC diagnosis (most advanced lesion) | 12 | ||
Adenoma 1–5 mm | 0.15 (0.11–0.20) | Beta (35, 196) | |
Adenoma 6–9 mm | 0.11 (0.08–0.16) | Beta (26, 205) | |
Adenoma 10 mm or larger | 0.04 (0.02–0.07) | Beta (10, 221) | |
Preclinical localised CRC | 0.001* | Uniform (0, 0.002) | |
Hyperplastic polyp 1–5 mm | 0.130 (0.09–0.18) | Beta (30, 201) | |
Hyperplastic polyp 6–9 mm | 0.048 (0.02–0.08) | Beta (11, 220) | |
Hyperplastic polyp 10 mm or larger | 0.013 (0.003–0.03) | Beta (3, 228) | |
Test characteristics (person-based; for most advanced lesion) | |||
Sensitivity (CTC) | 12 | ||
Polyp 1–5 mm | 0.31 (0.17–0.47)† | Beta (11, 24) | |
Polyp 6–9 mm | 0.38 (0.21–0.57) | Beta (10, 16) | |
Polyp 10 mm or larger, or CRC | 0.80 (0.52–0.97) | Beta (8, 2) | |
Specificity (CTC) | 0.84 (0.78–0.89) | Beta (134, 26) | 12 |
Sensitivity (OC) | |||
Polyp 1–5 mm | 0.55 (0.45–0.64) | Beta (56, 46) | 29 |
Polyp 6–9 mm | 0.67 (0.54–0.79) | Beta (35, 17) | 28 |
Polyp 10 mm or larger, or CRC | 0.95 (0.84–1.00) | Beta (21, 1) | 28 |
Specificity for adenomas (OC) | 1.00 | Assumed constant | |
Colonoscopy risks (per 1000 polypectomies) | |||
Death | 0.033 (0.00003–0.166) | Beta (0.493, 14 994) | 30 31 |
Nonfatal perforation | 0.60 (0.36–0.91) | Beta (18, 29 988) | 30 |
GI bleed | 6.66 (5.77–7.61) | Beta (201, 29 988) | 30 |
Quality-of-life weights | |||
Utilities | 32 | ||
Localised cancer | 0.74 (0.69–0.79) | Normal (0.74, 0.026) | |
Regional cancer | 0.63 (0.58–0.68) | Normal (0.11, 0.008)‡ | |
Distant cancer | 0.25 (0.20–0.30) | Normal (0.25, 0.026) | |
Disutility | 33 | ||
Perforation or GI bleed | 0.038 (0.001–0.075) | Uniform (0.001, 0.075) | |
Costs | |||
Tests | 13 | ||
OC without polypectomy | US$700 (US$684–US$717) | Normal (700, 8.2) | |
OC with polypectomy | US$1033 (US$930–US$1156) | Normal (1033, 60.7) | |
CTC | US$244 (US$228–US$275) | Normal (244, 7.7) | |
Colonoscopy complications | 34 | ||
Perforation | US$14 949 (US$12 019–US$17 879) | Normal (14949, 1494.9) | |
Serious gastrointestinal event | US$6256 (US$4849–US$7213) | Normal (6256, 625.6) | |
Cancer care | 34 35 | ||
Initial year, localised CRC | US$33 629 (US$32 745–US$34 538) | LN (10.42, 0.0136) | |
Initial year, regional CRC | US$48 053 (US$47 065–US$49 062) | LN (10.78, 0.0106) | |
Initial year, distant CRC | US$66 327 (US$63 375–US$47 301) | LN (11.00, 0.0188) | |
Continuing, localised CRC | US$2352 (US$2071–US$2483) | LN (7.76, 0.0463) | |
Continuing, regional CRC | US$2912 (US$2573–US$3063) | LN (7.98, 0.0445) | |
Continuing, distant CRC | US$9920 (US$8489–US$10 638) | LN (9.20, 0.0576) | |
Death from distant CRC | US$76 310 (US$74 555–US$78 086) | LN (11.24, 0.0119) |
*Assumption.
†Assumed to be 0 in base case.
‡Models the difference between the utility of localised and regional CRC.
CRC, colorectal cancer; CTC, CT colonography; GI, gastrointestinal; LN, Lognormal; OC, optical colonoscopy.