Table 3

Estimates of the number of deaths due to infectious intestinal disease in the UK per annum for selected pathogens

Year(s):Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4
20182018Average 2001–12 scaled up to 2018 by population2018

Pathogen
Enhanced surveillanceProportion deaths in outbreaksDeath certificate plus expert opinionHES proportion of discharges due to death
Central95% CrICentral95% CrICentral95% CrICentral95% CrI
Bacteria
Campylobacter----368(48 to 1372)15(12 to 20)45(24 to 84)
Clostridium perfringens----30(2 to 190)0(0 to 1)129(23 to 2719)
Escherichia coli O1572NA76(5 to 1217)--------
Listeria monocytogenes28NA32(17 to 52)22(19 to 27)21(8 to 30)
Salmonella----160(30 to 840)24(22 to 27)37(8 to 176)
Shigella----20(0 to 130)0(0 to 1)0(0 to 1)
Protozoa
Cryptosporidium----0(0 to 0)2(1 to 2)8(1 to 43)
Giardia----0(0 to 0)0(0 to 2)0(0 to 3)
Viruses
 Adenovirus----0(0 to 0)----27(8 to 76)
 Norovirus----3613(1868 to 6293)35(23 to 47)453(252 to 771)
 Rotavirus----0(0 to 0)5(3 to 6)1(0 to 4)
  • Where there is a 95% CrI of 0 to 0 in model 2, there were no deaths for that pathogen in the outbreak data.

  • CrI, credible interval; HES, hospital episode statistics.